IRAN'S NUCLEAR REALITY TRUMPS OBAMA'S UNICORN
James G. Zumwalt / June 17, 2020
World Net Daily ...
In 1905, writer and philosopher George Santayana warned, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Learning history's mistakes so as not to repeat them was lost on British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain.
Promising his people "peace in our time" in September 1938, he signed an agreement with Adolf Hitler, ignoring the lesson that autocracies seldom honor agreements.
A year later Britain was at war.
There is a tendency among Western leaders to believe they can accomplish what no one else before them could. Just about every American president for 40 years believed he could tame an aggressive North Korea only to fail, turning a blind eye to the fact Pyongyang has broken every international agreement it signed.
Embracing this same standard is the theocracy of Iran.
In an unprecedented measure, the House Republican Study Committee (RSC) last week recommended holding Tehran accountable.
During his presidency, Barack Obama was convinced that by showing Iran – champion of Shia Islam – that he would push for a new order in the Middle East that shared influence with Saudi Arabia – champion of Sunni Islam – it would result in Tehran retracting its teeth.
Obama entered negotiations with the mullahs on their nuclear program, paying them millions of dollars monthly just to sit at the table. The finalized 2015 deal, known as the "Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action" (JCPOA), was so one-sided in Tehran's favor, the mullahs could not refuse it – a deal described as somewhere between appeasement and detente.
The deal's terms were most inviting. The mullahs received two major benefits...
...(1) lifting sanctions and the release of $150 billion of frozen assets held by the U.S., allowing a financially strapped Iran to continue funding its international terrorist network...
...(2) opportunity to quietly violate the agreement which, even should sanctions be re-imposed, they felt, could be circumvented with a collaborative Europe coveting "peace in our time."
Perhaps the most damning JCPOA aspects were what it allowed.
First, despite Iran working closely with North Korea on its nuclear arms program, no prohibition against doing so was extracted.
Second, even if Iran complied with JCPOA's terms, it still paved the way for the mullahs ultimately to develop a nuclear arsenal.
Third, despite Iran being the world's biggest state sponsor of terrorism, nothing mandated such conduct be terminated.
Fourth, in a failure to confront the problem in 2015, choosing instead to kick the ball downfield for a future president to handle, an arms embargo against Iran that took years of international effort and the expenditure of significant political capital to achieve was to be lifted in October 2020.
While Obama was never willing to admit these glaring holes in JCPOA, Donald Trump, even before taking office as president, did.
Announcing in May 2018, the U.S. was withdrawing from the agreement, over the objections of our European allies, Trump made it clear JCPOA was "defective at its core."
Emboldened by Obama's Mister Roger's-like approach to Iran, the mullahs soon tested what they could get away with after Trump took office. Less than a month after his inauguration, they conducted a missile test arguably violating JCPOA.
Trump quickly denounced the test. Iran was put on notice and Trump made it clear there was a new sheriff in town. He tweeted, "Iran is playing with fire – they don't appreciate how 'kind' President Obama was to them. Not me!"
Almost a year earlier, Iran had conducted a similar missile test and was called out by Obama who announced new sanctions.
Amidst the confusion generated by the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) decision no JCPOA violation had occurred and Washington's declaration it had, Tehran continued test-firing long-range ballistic missiles and laser-guided surface-to-surface missiles.
Also during Obama's watch, Germany's domestic intelligence agency reported Tehran had initiated a "clandestine" effort to seek illicit nuclear technology and equipment from German companies "at what is, even by international standards, a quantitatively high level."
In 2018, White House National Security Adviser John Bolton explained Iran had repeatedly violated JCPOA.
As well as violations known, such as exceeding the limits of heavy water production – ultimately used for making plutonium to fuel nukes – he pointed out there may well be other violations we simply were unable to verify due to Tehran's lack of cooperation.
Despite numerous JCPOA violations by Iran resulting in U.S. sanctions, efforts by Europe to stay in the deal and to circumvent those sanctions has been a never-ending story.
As Trump ramped up sanctions against the mullahs to bring "maximum pressure" to punish them for their nuclear program by limiting their ability to sell oil or do business overseas, our European allies sought to remove the sanctions' sting.
Britain, Germany and France established a financial mechanism as a payment channel. Known as the Instex trade vehicle, it asserted European economic sovereignty by evading U.S. sanctions to keep JCPOA alive.
Initially seeking to ease the flow of non-sanctioned humanitarian supplies to Iran, Instex sought to expand trade to include sanctioned items. It was endorsed by the entire European Union.
As a result of Trump's maximum-pressure tourniquet on Iran's economy, Tehran realized not even Instex provided much of an economic lifeline. Sanctions forced Iran's nuclear program more out into the open as Tehran now drops any pretense of JCPOA compliance in its race to field a weapon.
Even the normally mullah-friendly IAEA is finally admitting major JCPOA violations by Iran. These include the testing of inter-continental ballistic missiles capable of covering the Middle East and reaching Europe as well.
On April 8, former Secretary of State John Kerry, who negotiated the tremendously flawed JCPOA, forewarned Tehran was two months away from breakout capability to produce enough nuclear material for a bomb, should it jumpstart its mothballed enrichment process. Iran edges closer to breakout because the mullahs knew how to play Obama and Kerry like a fiddle.
On June 10, fed up with the Iran's continuing transgressions and the countries helping it circumvent sanctions, the RSC decided enough is enough. It proposed the strongest sanctions ever.
Seeking to end all waivers and to impose severe economic penalties on anyone selling advanced weaponry to Iran, it also suggested implementing new sanctions on Iran's "petrochemical, shipping, financial, construction and automotive sectors," effectively filling all holes in earlier legislation allowing circumvention. Hopefully, the Republican Study Committee's proposed bite will be given teeth.
In 2009, believing a "nice-guy" approach toward Iran would mellow its acrimony toward the "Great Satan" America, Obama set his sights on a nuclear-free world. Iran's other declared enemies – Israel and Saudi Arabia – knew this was unrealistic and, fearing the consequences of Tehran successfully building nuclear ICBMs, have said they will never allow it.
Saudi Arabia, a non-nuclear power, has simply said, should Iran build nuclear missiles, they would acquire their own arsenal.
Like the unicorn, Obama's dream of a nuclear-free world was a myth. But with a nuclear-armed Iran opposed by U.S. and Israeli ICBMs as well as a potentially nuclear-armed Saudi Arabia, the myth of a nuclear Armageddon is on its way to becoming reality